Future Analysis Branch supports study project at the George C. Marshall Center

Even if an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine is not foreseeable at the moment, one day it will come to an end. And as little as the specific moment in time of the end of the war can be predicted, its outcomes and consequences are equally unclear. Nevertheless, gaining a better understanding of future trajectories of the Russo-Ukrainian war was precisely the starting point for a workshop in which members of the Bundeswehr Office for Defence Planning (BODP) supported a current study project of the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies.

The BODP experts in future analysis methodology were responsible for the conceptual design and implementation of a scenario workshop in Garmisch-Partenkirchen which lasted from February 20^th-24^th. Under the title "Alternative Ukrainian Future Trajectories: Implications for Russia and the West", numerous experts from the USA, Great Britain, Germany and Eastern Europe met at the Marshall Center. The expertise of the participants from Ukraine was particularly in demand, who sometimes gave a very direct and unembellished insight into the situation in the war-torn country. "For us, the topic is primarily an object of analysis, but for the Ukrainians here, it is about their very personal situation and future. The fact that they were nevertheless able to approach this topic in such an objective and unbiased manner speaks for their professionalism as academics," said moderator Dr. Hajo L., expressing his respect.

Outlining future paths

The team from the Future Analysis Branch of the BODP, to which Hajo L. belongs, had developed the concept for the workshop in a relatively short time frame. On site, the experts led and moderated the individual working groups. The aim was to create as many different future scenarios for the end of the war as possible and to outline the potential consequences or future paths for both the regional and world order.

The Future Analysis Department uses comparable methods for its future studies as well as its strategic recommendations for action. Furthermore, it can draw upon profound expertise in moderating heterogeneous groups. The workshop was the prelude to even more follow-up events, at the end of which concrete strategic recommendations are to be made.

by  Bundeswehr Office for Defence Planning  email